News about Hezbollah's escalation of its shelling against
the occupation in several areas within the occupied territories. This
escalation came after several days during which Israel launched heavy, targeted
strikes against the party, leading to a consensus among observers that a
full-scale war between them is imminent. Even the United Nations has taken
notice, with its spokesperson stating that the situation in Lebanon is heading
towards catastrophe and a full-blown war. What exactly is happening there? Can
Hezbollah confront the occupation? Can Lebanon withstand the war? Let's take a
look at the developments over the past hours, starting from the dawn of Sunday
when Hezbollah shelled several areas, both along the border between Lebanon and
the occupied territories.
In the occupied Syrian Golan, the bombardment was carried
out with many missiles, and the party claims that it caused significant damage,
even to the air bases of the occupation in the northern part of the occupied
land. In contrast, Israel says it intercepted most of these missiles, and only
a few landed on the ground, with some falling near an important air base in the
northern occupied territory called Ramad David. This base is crucial as it has
been launching airstrikes on southern Lebanon for several days now. Despite
this, the occupation's media released videos of the destruction that occurred
in Haifa due to the party's bombardment. As a result of this situation, the
occupation has suspended classes in many areas in Haifa, Akka, Safed, and
several other places.
Hezbollah Missiles: Rising Tensions and Regional Impact
However, there was a significant confusion because many of
the shelters that the residents of the northern occupied areas ran to had not
yet opened. Consequently, the Israelis remained in the open while Hezbollah's
rockets were passing overhead. The escalation by Hezbollah, as some media
outlets are saying, is perhaps the largest since the beginning of the war on
Gaza. This makes sense because throughout the past week, southern Lebanon has
also been subjected to Zionist bombardment. So, it is indeed the largest and
most intense since the start of the war, as reported by media worldwide.
Therefore, it is clear that the calculations of Hezbollah and the occupation
have changed in recent days, and this has created a conviction among...
Many observers and analysts believe that the war is
imminent, which is why we need to understand how things have unfolded between
the party and the occupation from the beginning of the aggression on Gaza up to
this latest escalation. This understanding will clarify what the upcoming
period will look like, starting from the Zionist war on Gaza and the connection
of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza with Iran. Hezbollah is Iran's most
important arm in the Middle East, and since Hezbollah has previously engaged in
battles against Israel, such as the 2006 conflict, there is a responsibility
for them to participate in the fight, especially given the principle held by
Iran's men in the Middle East, which is the unity of the arenas. This means...
The war against Israel is one war, whether it's being fought
by Hezbollah, Gaza, the Houthis, or even the Iranian-aligned Shiite militias in
Iraq who constantly insult you alongside the Americans. However, what was clear
during the first few months of the war is that Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel were
all taking turns in this potential conflict between them. This war will be
different even from the Gaza war because it could escalate into a major
regional, even global, war. That's why, at least in the first six months of the
war, the situation was mainly characterized by mutual shelling between the
party and the occupation. But over time, two important things happened.
The first issue is Palestine
Related to the occupation internally, the first issue is the
crisis of the settlers in the occupied northern Palestine, which means southern
Lebanon, with around 100,000 settlers. Their problem is that they are in the
line of fire from the party's shelling, as the missiles land in the
settlements. These settlers obviously have interests, land, and things they
want to return to, which makes it difficult. Consequently, they have become a
headache for Netanyahu, especially since the Israeli opposition has started
using this card to pressure him into making a deal for a prisoner exchange and
ending the war. The settlers themselves have begun to hold demonstrations
demanding that Netanyahu either end the war and return them to the settlements
or launch an attack.
Hezbollah needs to deal with them now because they want to
return. The other thing is that even within Netanyahu's government, there are
ministers who disagree with him, like Benny Gantz and Defense Minister Gallant,
who are calling for a solution to the dialogue with the northern residents.
Gallant sees that the time has come for Hezbollah's dialogue to be resolved
because the Israeli army has achieved all possible objectives in Gaza. On the
other hand, Hezbollah has many internal calculations that make it consider
every step in this battle, as there are political forces within Lebanon that
are waiting for them. Any Israeli bombardment of deep Lebanon, if war breaks
out as a result of all these tensions, would escalate the situation between
Hezbollah and the occupation gradually.
Hamas Leaders Targeted: Assassination and Aftermath
In conjunction with Netanyahu's internal crisis, he has
assassinated two figures in quick succession in Lebanon. The first was Saleh
al-Arouri, a Hamas leader, who was killed in an apartment in the southern
suburb of Beirut, the party's stronghold. Shortly after, Netanyahu assassinated
the most important military leader in the party, Fouad Shukr. The party is now
under significant pressure and must respond and engage more, because aside from
the slogans and political and moral pressure, not responding would imply an
inability to retaliate, which would allow Israel to strike a significant blow
whenever it chooses without concern. Hassan Nasrallah has been trying to ease
this crisis with lengthy speeches, all of which revolve around...
The meaning is clear: he will respond strongly and
decisively at the right moment for the party. The problem is that when the real
test came—responding to the assassination of Fouad Shukr—the way the response
unfolded did not achieve the promotional impact the party wanted. Israel
claimed it delivered a preemptive strike against the party, while the party
stated it hit targets within the occupation. The reality got lost in the chaos.
All of this happened alongside increasing tensions between Netanyahu and his
Defense Minister Gallant, who wants a large ground operation against Hezbollah
to achieve the comprehensive victory he desires. Gallant was exploiting the
delay in the war against the party to undermine Netanyahu's popularity by
accusing him.
With hesitation and cowardice, a faction that is part of the
group opposing Netanyahu's management of the war within the government has
emerged, and over time, this group has grown.
And the chief of staff of the occupying army joined him, and
thus Netanyahu found himself in a bigger crisis. As a result of this situation,
the escalation between the occupation and the party increased and became faster
until we reached a critical stage where things went down a path from which
there is no return. Of course, there was the qualitative attack that no one had
actually anticipated, with the explosion of beeper devices in the hands of
Hezbollah members, which killed 12 people, including two children, and around
3,000 were injured. After less than 24 hours, the same thing happened but with
devices.
What is a pager
The difference between a pager and a wireless device is that a pager is a
calling device that gives a ring to the person you want to contact so they can
call you back or sends them a message to wait for your call. On the other hand,
the wireless device is attached to the soldier, just like a weapon, because it
is a means of communication with colleagues and command. Therefore, disrupting
wireless devices is more dangerous than the pager issue, even though the pager
has gained more notoriety. Before all of this, there was Hamada, and after him,
there’s another Hamada entirely. The first messages indicate that the
occupation is situated among Hezbollah soldiers and is acting foolishly. The
more dangerous aspect is that it is destroying the party's communication
network, which is crucial during wartime, just like a weapon. Targeting it is a
precursor to a direct military strike.
The war and the third point is the way the occupation rigged the beeper
devices, because what happened is that Mossad reached the production line from
which the party imports beeper devices outside of Lebanon. This means that they
have infiltrated external communications, especially since the issue has turned
into a mess. So far, the investigation hasn't revealed anything. Initially,
attention was directed towards the Taiwanese company that manufactures the type
of beeper that Hezbollah imported five months ago, and the Taiwanese company
said, "We have nothing to do with this; we have given a franchise to a
trading company." It turned out that the trading company is literally just
two chairs and a fire extinguisher, and it doesn't have a factory to
manufacture anything.
There was a situation where a ball was thrown into the court of a company in
Bulgaria. The Bulgarian company also denied its connection to Hezbollah's big
boss, and reports indicated that this sewage company was actually a cover for
the Israeli Mossad. The summary of the scene is that a siege was imposed on
Hezbollah due to Israeli infiltration both inside and outside Lebanon. Amid
this siege, Israel saw an opportunity to intensify its strikes against the
party while it was busy plugging its own leaks. They carried out an operation
that was no less significant than the assassination of Fouad Shukr, killing one
of the most important military leaders of the party, Ibrahim Aqil, who was the
commander of one of the party's most important special forces units called the
Al-Ridwan Force. The significance of this leader was that he was the
commander...
significant blow
The operation by Hezbollah, and more importantly, the commander of the
offensive line in the Galilee region, which is the large area south of the
border with Lebanon and occupied Palestine, meaning the area directly facing
Hezbollah in case of any war. The assassination of Ibrahim Aqil is considered a
significant blow, not just the killing of a leader. That's why the occupation
targeted a building in the southern victim area and completely destroyed it to
be able to strike the building next to it, which housed Ibrahim Aqil. This is
why Israel emphasized the news of his assassination and claimed to have killed
other significant leaders alongside him, the most important of whom is another
named Ahmad Wahbi, who is the training commander in the party. All of this
happened at a time when the occupation...
He is increasing his arrangements regarding the north, meaning the borders with
Hezbollah and Lebanon, and the northern front has become the central focus, not
Gaza. Moreover, new forces have been called up from reserves. The occupation is
also clearly preparing for a war with Hezbollah to address the political
fragmentation it is experiencing, which is widening day by day. The most important
factor in this fragmentation is that Galan believes we definitely need to
strike Hezbollah, but this must happen in coordination with America at every
step, as America is Israel's biggest supporter in the war. Without American
weapons, Israel wouldn't have been able to withstand for a month. Galan is also
adopting the Biden administration's view that the war with...
The party needs to be calculated precisely because this will be a war aimed at
completely destroying the party. In this case, the party and Iran behind it
will do everything they can, and thus the circle of war will expand. This will
put pressure on the regimes allied with America in the Middle East, primarily
the Gulf, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and possibly Albania. What happens could reach
the point of toppling regimes friendly to America, which would be a political
earthquake against American interests. Consequently, this will affect its
support for Israel. In contrast, Gallant and Netanyahu are saying they don't
care about the Americans; they will fight aggressively, and whatever happens,
happens. The Americans should be behind us, not in front of us, as a result of
this conflict.
dismissing Gallant
Netanyahu is seriously considering dismissing Gallant, but he's hesitant
because that would escalate the political crisis and would mean Gallant
officially joins the opposition. This is significant in the occupation, as he
was the commander of the southern region in the army, which deals with Gaza. He
has experience in handling the sector, and if he becomes an opponent with that
expertise, he could expose Netanyahu's mistakes, creating more headaches for
him, which he doesn't need right now. Moreover, if he dismisses Gallant, it
would be the first time a defense minister is removed during a state of war,
which would intensify the opposition's attacks on Netanyahu. That's why
Netanyahu is trying to quickly escalate the situation with southern Lebanon and
Hezbollah to gain...
The Israeli society is preparing for a new major war, ready to respond to
anyone who attacks, including Gallant himself. That's why, following the Beirut
bombings and the assassination of Ibrahim Aqeel, the bombardment of southern
Lebanon has intensified. In addition to the 100 airstrikes that occurred on
Saturday night, there were another 50 strikes. Instructions have been given to
the entire occupying army to be in a state of maximum readiness, as Hezbollah
could retaliate at any moment, and a major war could start at any time. These
strikes have already killed around 40 Lebanese civilians. The problem now is
that if, God forbid, the war that Netanyahu is preparing for occurs, Lebanon
will literally be in the eye of the storm, knowing that Gallant means it.
A famous statement a few months ago when he said we could bring Lebanon back to
the Stone Age, and the problem is that it's clear the occupation wants Lebanon
to return to the Stone Age, and Lebanon's own circumstances qualify it to go
back to the Stone Age. In April of last year, the media celebrated when
inflation in Lebanon decreased to 100% after more than four years.
The economy is collapsing
I
think we don't need any more discussion about the economy there. Last month,
electricity was cut off from every inch of Lebanon, literally, including the
airports and the water station, because there is no gas in the country. This
means there is no life in Lebanon under normal circumstances, so imagine what
would happen if, God forbid, a war broke out. Not to mention that...
